Partially cut off for hunger marketing forced chemical industry

In a recent report, Shanghui News contacted Sinopec Yanshan Petrochemical Sales Department on August 13 and was informed that phenol is currently unavailable, with production facilities in Harbin undergoing maintenance. This has led to a tight supply situation in the coming period. Phenol isn't the only product experiencing supply shortages—methanol, butadiene, TDI, and PX have all seen sharp price increases, driven by manufacturers’ “hunger marketing” strategies. Industry experts note that supply constraints are common during the traditional maintenance season in August and September. However, after months of operating near cost levels, manufacturers have shown strong resistance to further price hikes. According to Zhang Ming, a chemical analyst at Business Community, the upcoming “Golden 9 Silver 10” market is expected to gain momentum, supported by rising costs, demand recovery, and external factors such as global market linkages. On August 13, the Shanghai Daily reported a monthly methanol price increase of over 10%. Cui Zhiming, a methanol analyst at Zhongyu Information, confirmed that prices had risen by RMB 70–100/ton in some regions, or about 3%, with South China’s mainstream price exceeding RMB 3,000/ton. Market observers note that the recent price surges are largely due to localized supply disruptions. Methanol producers are nearly out of stock, and the northwestern region has entered a “seller’s market” following equipment maintenance. Jiangsu Port’s methanol inventory has dropped to its lowest level since 2010, from 500,000 tons to around 250,000 tons. Butadiene prices rose 13% in a week, driven by shutdowns at major manufacturers like Qixiang Tengda and Liaotong Chemical. TDI prices have surged over 10% this month, with South China facing a shortage and prices reaching 21,800 yuan/ton. Zhang Ming noted that while some products have seen price fatigue recently, supply has improved, and downstream sectors will take time to absorb the increased prices. He believes that in the second half of the year, demand-led trends will dominate, and products with “rigid demand” will see more sustainable growth. Glyphosate serves as a prime example, with its price soaring in the past month due to increased planting of genetically modified crops in South America. Over 90% of China’s glyphosate exports are driven by international demand, and manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang believe there is still room for growth. Zhang also highlighted the importance of fluorinated materials, which are in high demand due to the summer heat across China. While the refrigerant industry has benefited from this, prices for materials like hydrofluoric acid and trichloroethylene have yet to rebound. In August, the R22 refrigerant industry operated at 80%, with inventory dropping from 40,000 tons in July to 30,000 tons. R134a’s operating rate remained below 40%, with inventory falling from 25,000 to 20,000 tons. Zhang predicts that growing demand from air conditioning and automotive industries will drive overall price increases. Liu Dongyuan, another analyst at Zhongyu Information, believes the current local bull market is clear: after years of adjustment, social inventories have declined, and short-term demand from downstream companies has picked up. With policy support, effective demand is expected to grow further, leading to a steady recovery in the chemical market in the second half of the year.

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