Refined oil prices once again faced a setback as the latest retail price adjustment failed to meet the threshold of 50 RMB per ton, leading to another delay. This marks the second time since the new pricing mechanism was introduced, and the fourth overall instance of stranded adjustments. The last adjustment was put on hold on August 3rd, and this week’s attempt also fell short due to minimal fluctuations in international crude oil prices.
According to data monitored by the Daily Economic News (microblogging), the current round of price adjustments has been stalled again. Analysts believe that this outcome could further weaken the domestic refined oil market, with wholesale prices continuing to drop and the gap between wholesale and retail prices reaching a yearly high. PetroChina and Sinopec have reported losses in some regions, though the impact remains limited for now.
The next price adjustment window is set to open on August 16, with results expected on the morning of August 17. As of August 13, the average reference price of crude oil (WTI, Brent, Dubai, ESPO) stood at 107.148 USD per barrel, with a change rate of just 0.34%. This suggests that the upcoming adjustment may not lead to any significant changes in retail prices.
Earlier data showed that the change rate index was at 0.21% as of August 12, with an estimated increase of about 15 RMB per ton in retail sales after considering unadjusted rates. Although international crude prices are still rising, the comprehensive change rate dropped by 0.13% from the previous day, continuing its downward trend.
Analyst Si Bin noted that short-term crude oil prices are unlikely to surge significantly. With favorable factors gradually fading, the overall forecast for crude oil prices is expected to remain stable or even slightly decline over the weekend, making it difficult for the change rate to reach a level that would trigger a price adjustment.
An Dan, an analyst from Anxious Oil Refinery, stated that unless Brent crude rises above $110.9 per barrel by $2 or drops below $105 by $4, there will be no change in domestic retail prices. Zhuochuang Information Technology data suggests that the likelihood of continued price stagnation is increasing. If international oil prices rebound enough to push the change rate above 0.7%, a small increase might occur. Otherwise, the adjustment is likely to be delayed again.
Market conditions remain challenging, with “two barrels of oil†(referring to major oil companies) facing losses in certain areas. Despite efforts to offer discounts, the weak demand and slow consumption have limited their effectiveness. As a result, increased shipments and price reductions are expected.
As of August 12, the price difference between the wholesale and retail prices of 93# gasoline and 0# diesel in 26 major cities reached 703 yuan and 515 yuan per ton, respectively—both record highs this year. Analyst Xue Qun from Long Qun Petrochemical believes that with weak demand, the market will see continued declines in wholesale prices, but the large margin between wholesale and retail may encourage more promotions to attract customers.
Yu Jinbo from Treasure Island said that even a minor price increase would have limited impact on the market. Gasoline and diesel demand remains weak, and middlemen are operating under high risk with low profit margins. Speculative demand is minimal, and downstream users are maintaining low inventory levels, resulting in sluggish buying and selling activity.
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