In the midst of what was considered a slow season for the coke market, prices that had been stagnant for half a year are now showing signs of recovery. This upward trend is largely driven by a rebound in the downstream steel industry, which has prompted a series of tentative price increases across the country. "It's now a full-blown upswing, with some prices rising more than once or twice," said Du Hongfeng, an analyst at Nisshin Shinkansen E-commerce, in a recent interview with the *Daily Economic News*.
Industry insiders also confirmed this widespread price increase, noting that the coke market is expected to maintain its upward momentum as the peak season for steel production approaches. Prices began to rise in late July, following a month of increasing steel prices. Initially, some regions like Shandong saw modest price adjustments, but the trend quickly spread nationwide. By the end of July, coking companies in Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, and Shanxi had all implemented price hikes.
According to Du Hongfeng, current price increases range from 30 to 50 yuan per ton, with some areas seeing rises of over 60 yuan. "Xuzhou has seen a jump of 70 to 80 yuan, while Shanxi’s price increases were later and smaller, only around 30 to 50 yuan per ton," he explained. Meanwhile, Guo Zhihong, an analyst at Treasure Island Coke Industry, noted that prices have risen sharply since August, partly due to mills setting new pricing benchmarks at the start of the month.
Guo added that during the first half of the year, the coke market remained in decline, with prices hitting levels that many companies could no longer sustain. When the steel market improved, coke producers couldn’t afford to wait for gradual price increases. Additionally, with low stockpiles at steel mills, traders started buying again, signaling a potential bottoming out of the market.
Du Hongfeng emphasized that the current price rise is directly linked to increased demand from steel mills, which have not been holding large inventories. In recent days, both coking coal and coke prices have surged, with daily increases exceeding 2%. According to reports from Great Wisdom News Agency, Shenhua raised primary and secondary coke prices by 30 yuan per ton, bringing the primary coke price to 1,370 yuan/ton and secondary coke to 1,260 yuan/ton (including tax). Meijin Energy also recently increased its coke prices by 30 yuan per ton.
However, not all coking companies are optimistic. Jiaoqi, a major player in the industry, pointed out that many coking companies—especially independent ones—are facing challenges. Despite strong coking coal prices, weak demand from steel mills has led to losses for many producers. In May, the Lincang City Committee of the Coking Industry in Shanxi reported that local coking companies were losing 90% of their revenue, a situation that has persisted for months.
As a result, many coking plants are forced to limit production, even if it means facing the risk of furnace damage. After a brief rise at the start of the year, the coke market fell into a downward trend for five months. According to Business Club data, coke prices dropped from 1,537 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 1,165 yuan/ton by July 23—a decline of 27.73%.
While some coking companies have managed to turn a profit after the price increases, Du Hongfeng noted that most are still operating at a break-even point. With improved downstream demand, production has increased, but industry leaders remain cautious. A senior executive at a major Shandong-based coking company told the *Daily Economic News* that while Shandong was among the first to raise prices, with three rounds of 20-yuan-per-ton increases, many surrounding companies are still hesitant to ramp up production due to existing overcapacity. "We’re not very optimistic about the market improvement," they said.
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