**Abstract**
The latest data indicates that China’s polysilicon prices experienced a moderate upward trend in the third quarter of this year. At the beginning of July, before the preliminary anti-dumping rulings from the U.S. and South Korea were introduced, the spot price of polysilicon in China ranged between 105,000 to 135,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of approximately 1.2227 million yuan per ton. Following the Ministry of Commerce's adoption of temporary anti-dumping measures against solar-grade polysilicon from the U.S. and South Korea on July 18, the price rose slightly, reaching 134,000 yuan per ton by the end of September—a 9.2% increase.
**Polysilicon Industry Faces Integration**
With the EU’s “double reverse†ruling advancing, several domestic polysilicon companies have been encouraged to resume operations. For instance, Luoyang Zhongsi resumed full production on August 18, while Yichang CSG’s plant started operating again on August 4 after 11 months of maintenance and upgrades. Shaanxi Tianhong also restarted its operations in September.
In addition to resuming operations, some enterprises increased their output during the third quarter. Total polysilicon production reached about 21,000 tons, up 14.3% from the previous quarter’s 18,000 tons. Jiangsu Zhongneng alone accounted for 63% of total domestic production.
Although around ten polysilicon firms were affected by the U.S. and South Korean anti-dumping investigations, they have resumed production—though many are still operating at a loss. According to Liu Jing, a researcher at the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, these enterprises chose to restart operations in anticipation of future market improvements and to secure a position in the upcoming industry consolidation.
Liu also warned that smaller polysilicon producers may struggle to survive in the long term, as the industry remains under pressure from foreign dumping and lacks strong recovery drivers.
**Enterprises Actively Pursue Export Quotas**
According to customs data, China’s polysilicon imports in August dropped to 5,330 tons—a 22.5% decline from the previous month. After a spike in July, import levels returned to those seen in May and June. The average import price fell slightly to 18.75 yuan per kilogram, down 6.2% from the previous month and 22.6% compared to the same period last year.
In August, 1,157 tons were imported through general trade (21.7%), while 4,173 tons came through processing trade (78.3%).
On August 6, the “price commitment†agreement for the Sino-European PV trade dispute officially took effect, limiting annual exports of Chinese PV products to Europe to no more than 7 GW. Some previously planned projects were canceled due to customers’ reluctance to accept the minimum price of 0.56 euros per watt, leading to a sharp drop in European PV exports.
To mitigate this, some companies are considering local component manufacturing in Europe to reduce shipping costs and avoid the minimum pricing. Others are adopting price strategies, such as declaring higher prices at customs but negotiating lower actual transaction prices, or acquiring low-cost factories in Europe to gain a competitive edge.
**Supply and Demand Balance in Q3**
Domestic polysilicon production in the third quarter reached 21,000 tons, with an estimated 18,000 tons imported, totaling 39,000 tons of supply. Crystalline silicon cell output was approximately 6.5 GW, consuming around 39,000 tons of polysilicon, resulting in a balanced market.
While demand in the European market is expected to slow due to the EU’s “double reverse†decision, demand in China and the Asia-Pacific region is rising, signaling a gradual shift in market focus. However, it will take time for new markets outside Europe to develop, so demand in the fourth quarter is not expected to grow significantly.
Liu Jing emphasized that while the preliminary anti-dumping rulings on U.S. and South Korean polysilicon demonstrate China’s determination to protect its industry, further actions—including the final “double reverse†ruling—are still ahead.
He also highlighted the need for China to clarify the international strategic role of the polysilicon sector, noting that domestic costs have reached global standards, making it impractical to simply follow foreign technology. The government should support research platforms to address common technical challenges and equipment upgrades.
Major enterprises should collaborate to drive cost reductions and lay a solid foundation for future growth. Domestic standards must align with international ones to ensure long-term stability. New entrants should carefully evaluate the market, conduct thorough research, and avoid blind investments. The entire industry must work together, strengthening upstream and downstream relationships to build a sustainable and cooperative ecosystem.
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