**Abstract**
The latest data indicates that China's polysilicon prices experienced a moderate upward trend during the third quarter of this year. At the beginning of July, the spot price of polysilicon in China, prior to the preliminary anti-dumping rulings by the U.S. and South Korea, ranged between 105,000 and 135,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of approximately 1.2227 million yuan per ton. Following the adoption of temporary anti-dumping measures by China’s Ministry of Commerce on solar-grade polysilicon from the U.S. and South Korea on July 18, the price rose slightly to 134,000 yuan per ton by the end of September—a 9.2% increase.
**Polysilicon Industry Faces Integration**
With the EU’s “double reversal†ruling advancing, some domestic polysilicon companies have been encouraged to resume operations. For example, Luoyang Zhongsi resumed full production on August 18, while Yichang CSG’s polysilicon plant restarted after 11 months of maintenance and upgrades on August 4. Similarly, Shaanxi Tianhong also resumed operations in September.
In addition to these resumptions, several polysilicon producers increased output during the third quarter. Total Chinese polysilicon production reached about 21,000 tons, up 14.3% from the previous quarter’s 18,000 tons. Jiangsu Zhongneng accounted for 63% of the total domestic output.
Although around ten polysilicon firms were affected by the U.S. and South Korean anti-dumping investigations, they have all returned to production—though at a loss. According to Liu Jing, a researcher at the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the decision to restart was driven by expectations of future market improvement and the desire to secure a position in the ongoing industry consolidation.
Liu also noted that smaller polysilicon enterprises may struggle to survive in the coming years, as the industry remains under pressure from foreign dumping and lacks strong stimuli for recovery.
**Enterprises Actively Pursue Export Quotas**
According to customs data, China’s polysilicon imports in August totaled 5,330 tons, a 22.5% drop from the previous month. After a surge in July, import levels returned to those seen in May and June. The average import price fell slightly to 18.75 yuan/kg in August, down 6.2% from the previous month and 22.6% from the same period last year.
Of the 5,330 tons imported, only 21.7% came through general trade, while 78.3% entered via processing trade. On August 6, the “price commitment†agreement for the Sino-European PV trade dispute officially took effect, limiting annual exports of Chinese PV products to Europe to 7 GW.
Liu Jing pointed out that some previously planned PV projects were canceled due to customers’ reluctance to accept the minimum price of 0.56 euros/Watt. As a result, exports to Europe dropped sharply. Some companies are now considering local component manufacturing in Europe to cut freight costs and avoid the minimum price, though this will reduce profit margins. Others are exploring pricing strategies, such as declaring a 0.56 euro/Watt customs value while selling at a lower actual price or acquiring low-cost production facilities in Europe or nearby regions.
China’s PV market is heavily reliant on overseas demand, while the domestic market has yet to fully develop. With a sharp decline in European exports, all PV companies are actively seeking export quotas. After the first round of quota allocations to Europe, the second round is expected soon, with the remaining 10% still under discussion. If major PV companies fail to secure quotas, it could trigger a chain reaction, disrupting their business operations.
**Basic Supply and Demand Balance in Q3**
Domestic polysilicon production in the third quarter reached 21,000 tons, while estimated imports were around 18,000 tons, resulting in a total supply of 39,000 tons. During the same period, crystalline silicon cell output was approximately 6.5 GW, consuming about 39,000 tons of polysilicon. Thus, the supply and demand balance remained relatively stable.
However, the EU’s “double reversal†policy is expected to slow European demand, while demand in the Chinese and Asia-Pacific markets is projected to grow. Although the shift in demand is gradual, the development of new photovoltaic markets outside Europe will take time. Consequently, demand in the fourth quarter is not expected to rise significantly.
Liu Jing emphasized that while the preliminary anti-dumping rulings against U.S. and South Korean polysilicon demonstrate China’s determination to protect its domestic industry, the final “double reversal†ruling remains a long-term challenge.
To strengthen the international strategic position of the polysilicon industry, Liu suggested that domestic production costs have already reached international standards, so blind imitation of foreign technology is not advisable. The government should support the establishment of research platforms to address common technical challenges, key process upgrades, and equipment improvements.
The quarterly report also highlighted the importance of collaboration among major enterprises, emphasizing the need for joint efforts in reducing production costs and laying a solid foundation for future growth. It further urged that domestic standards should align with international ones to ensure long-term stability in the industry.
For new entrants, careful consideration and comprehensive research are essential before investment. All stakeholders must prepare and work together, strengthening upstream and downstream cooperation to consolidate resources and build long-term relationships that contribute to the industry’s sustainable development.
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