Enterprise Development Industry and Commerce Index is optimistic about the fourth quarter economy

At the second high-level seminar on industrial and commercial administration innovation and development held recently, the “Enterprise Development Industry and Commerce Index”, which was built by the State Administration for Industry and Commerce’s “Enterprise Development Industry and Commerce Index” and Longxin Data Company, using big data mining technology, passed the previous After analyzing the relevant data in the third quarter, it is predicted that China's macro economy will continue to improve in the fourth quarter.

“The reason for this prediction is that the 'Enterprise Development Industry and Commerce Index' has the characteristics of predictive prediction. The prediction based on the correlation analysis method is the core of big data.” Professor Hao Ruyu, vice president of Capital University of Economics and Business, said. "By searching through big data, we found that the 'Enterprise Development Industry and Commerce Index' has a significant correlation with gross domestic product (GDP) and public revenue, and the growth of the 'Business Development Industry and Commerce Index' is ahead of GDP and public revenue in the same period. Two quarters."

For example, Hao Ruyu said that the “Enterprise Development Industry and Commerce Index” rebounded from 32.1 in March this year and rebounded to 40.1 in June. Since then, various economic indicators have also shown that China’s economy is indeed in a stable state. Since the third quarter, the “Enterprise Development Industry and Commerce Index” has continued to rise and rebounded to 44.3 in September, indicating that China’s macro economy will continue to improve in the fourth quarter.

Wang Bing, chief technology officer of Longxin Data, said that in the context of big data, the relevance of correlation can be used to analyze the inner relationship between things more easily, quickly and clearly than before. The core of the correlation is to quantify the mathematical relationship between two data values, from the increase or decrease of a value to predict the increase or decrease of another data value. It can be seen that the discovery of correlations between different fields through big data mining has become the latest perspective for people to observe and analyze things.

The market entity is the cell of the market economy and the creator of social wealth. It is closely related to economic development and determines the level of macroeconomic development and government revenue. The "Enterprise Development Industry and Commerce Index" is based on the analysis of big data mining of the main players in the country, and compares the data of different departments such as industry and commerce and finance to compare and analyze, so as to discover its value and successfully predict China's macroeconomic trends.

The study also found that there is a significant linear relationship between the number of firms, registered capital and public revenues and GDP growth. The correlation coefficient between public finance income and the number of enterprises and registered capital is 0.832 and 0.994 respectively. For every 100 million yuan of registered capital of enterprises, the fiscal revenue will increase by about 14 million yuan; the correlation coefficient between GDP and the number of enterprises and registered capital will be 0.853 and 0.998, since 1990, the average registered capital of enterprises has increased by 100 million yuan, driving GDP growth of about 65 million yuan.

It is reported that the "Enterprise Development Industry and Commerce Index" research group has changed the research methods of past sampling statistics, using big data mining technology to analyze the full and dynamic national enterprise registration data of the industry and commerce. It is a typical big data value discovery process and has become the government of our country. The first achievement in the field of big data mining.

Wang Tong introduced that the sample of “Enterprise Development Industry and Commerce Index” comes from the national economic household registration database constructed by the “Golden Trust Project” of the State Administration for Industry and Commerce. The economic household registration database has covered all market entities in the country, including more than 55 million enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. Information covers the whole life cycle data of establishment, growth, development and demise of enterprises. In the process of index construction, considering and combining dimensions such as scale, industry and subject type, 32 indicators were preliminarily designed. After data analysis and verification, 10 indicators with significant prognosis for macroeconomics were selected. index".

Future big data will change human thinking patterns, living habits and business rules, and cause profound changes in social development. It is one of the most important national strategies in the future. In the nearly 20 years of informatization construction, the Chinese government has deposited a large amount of valuable data, which is the living fossil of the entire social and economic activities, the non-material wealth that can be recycled indefinitely, and the important decision-making basis for scientific management. Departments can make data generate value through big data mining analysis. The successful application of the "Enterprise Development Industry and Commerce Index" and its research results is not only a good start for the Chinese government in the field of big data mining, but also provides a reference model for the Chinese government in the field of big data mining.

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