Power plant development ushered in investment opportunities distributed will still be the focus

In 2015, it is anticipated that 35GW of photovoltaic (PV) power generation capacity will be installed, with 19GW coming from distributed systems and 16GW from large-scale ground-mounted power stations. This distribution highlights the continued focus on decentralized energy solutions. According to Meng Xianyi, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, this presents an ideal opportunity for private enterprises to invest in distributed power projects. Meng emphasized that while the "12th Five-Year Plan" sets a target of 35GW for PV installations, there has not yet been an official breakdown of these figures. Currently, large ground-mounted projects are primarily led by state-owned enterprises, while distributed systems offer more room for private sector participation. He believes now is a favorable time for private companies to enter the market, as subsidies are expected to decrease over time, with some potentially being phased out within two or three years. According to his analysis, distributed PV is expected to achieve grid parity by 2015, while large-scale ground projects may reach this point around 2020. Meanwhile, the current tariff subsidy policy offers long-term support, making the present moment highly attractive for investors. “The highest return on investment is available right now,” Meng noted, adding that the window of opportunity is limited and should not be missed. He also estimated that the financial subsidies for renewable energy during the 12th Five-Year Plan period could reach tens to hundreds of billions of yuan. Despite challenges in the PV module manufacturing sector—where overcapacity and financial difficulties persist—photovoltaic power generation itself remains a promising area. Changsha Xiaolin, director of Johnson & Johnson Optoelectronics, expressed strong confidence in the domestic PV power plant market. His company has already completed a 51MW project and plans to build a 100MW rooftop PV system by mid-2014. The project is set to be developed in 2–3 state-level development zones, with several rooftops already under agreement. The company aims to go public and expand to 350MW of distributed PV within two years, generating 500 million kWh annually and achieving a return on investment exceeding 15%. Meng also pointed out that banks have historically been hesitant to finance PV projects due to uncertainty around subsidies and grid access. However, these issues are expected to be resolved soon. Qian Jing, global brand director at Jingjing Energy, highlighted that most Chinese commercial banks only offer loans up to five years, which does not match the 25-year lifespan of PV projects. She urged banks to extend loan terms to at least 10 years for renewable energy projects. Additionally, she noted that financing costs for domestic companies remain high, with disparities between state-owned and private enterprises. To address this, the government could introduce special interest rate policies for PV projects, lowering borrowing costs and improving capital efficiency. In response to the high barriers for PV financing, Qian suggested that banks consider the revenue stream from the power station or the asset itself as collateral. This would allow private enterprises to secure loans with just 20%–30% of their own capital. In the future, the revenue from the power station could be treated like an individual’s monthly salary, protecting the bank’s interests while reducing risk.

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