Daily Comment: Steel prices consolidate upward trend or continue to ship
Today's hot spot
Following yesterday's sharp rise in the steel market, today's merchants are relatively cautious in operation. Most of them said that they will mainly absorb digestive gains. This is true. As the high position has shown a weak transaction, today's overall shipments have declined compared with yesterday. At the same time, the futures market continues. Stronger was suppressed by the empty singles, and followed by the volatility after midday. From the published weekly inventory data, inventory continued to decline, but the decline has slowed down, indicating that the terminal demand performance is acceptable, so the market mentality continues to improve. On the whole, the steel market as a whole maintained a consolidation trend, and merchants continued to ship mainly.
Macro hotspot
1. [Domestic commodity futures mostly closed up, double-focus led] Coke, rubber, coking coal, crude oil, iron ore, glass, plastic closed up more than 1%, Shanghai aluminum, asphalt, eggs, PVC, Shanghai silver, Shanghai nickel, Ferrosilicon, Shanghai lead, Zheng coal, corn, soybean meal, Zheng alcohol, Shanghai tin, Shanghai copper, Shanghai gold, etc. closed up. Hot coils, Shanghai zinc, white sugar, manganese silicon, rapeseed meal, thread, etc. closed down.
2. [The two cities bottomed out and the GEM rose, and the high-selling new shares were active]
The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,100.86 points, up 0.64%, with a turnover of 173.44 billion.
The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10458.62 points, up 1.12%, with a turnover of 234.10 billion.
The GEM closed at 1826.79 points, up 1.4%, with a turnover of 84.6 billion.
3. [The People's Bank of China today launched a 50-billion-day 7-day reverse repurchase operation. Today, 120 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expires, with a net return of 70 billion yuan. 】
4. [The central bank regulates RQDII overseas investment and may not remit the RMB to overseas purchases]
Market today
Raw material
Billet: The price of the national billet market has strengthened. Today, Tangshan steel slabs rose 20 yuan / ton, Shanxi steel slabs rose 30 yuan / ton, Shandong, Jiangsu steel slabs rose 40 yuan / ton, today's Changli area Pufang billet led to 20 yuan / ton, after the rise, the overall turnover of steel billets, downstream products The price of timber was stable and high, and the straight billet of Tangshan was generally sold. The spot price of the warehouse was reduced from 3,740 yuan/ton in early trading to 3,720 tax-included, and the transaction turned weak. During the period of steel shock operation, the wait-and-see sentiment in the spot market increased slightly. The individual varieties of finished products could be sold, and the overall sales were general. After the steel slabs held the price in the afternoon, the current carbon 150 billet was reported at 3,660 yuan/ton, and the 165 rectangular billet was 3,680 yuan/ton. 20MnSi billet 3780 yuan / ton, cash ex-factory.
Domestic mines: The market in the main producing areas is stable. North China - Tangshan 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 625-635 yuan / ton, Qianxi 66% dry basis tax-included cash out 610-620 yuan / ton, Qian'an 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 635-645 yuan / ton; Zunhua 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 610-620 yuan / ton; Kuancheng 65% dry basis tax-included cash factory 570 yuan / ton.
Imported mines: Traders' enthusiasm for offer is acceptable, quoted price is 5-10 yuan/ton higher than yesterday, of which Shandong PB powder mainstream price is 480 yuan/ton, Tangshan area pre-sale PB powder mainstream price is 485 yuan/ton; After the volume of the transaction, the enthusiasm of the steel mills today has declined. The steel mills that still have the procurement demand have also reduced the acceptance of the mine price. The game between buyers and sellers is obvious. With the agreement between the buyers and sellers after the close, the transaction gradually increased. As of press time, the transaction is as follows: Caofeidian Port Super Powder 295, Mixed Powder 323, Newman Powder 495, PB Block 580, Newman Sieve Block 625; Jingtang Port PB Block 580/585, Mixed Powder 323; Huanghua Port Macan Powder 465/ 468, Jinbuba powder 475, mixed powder 338/339/340; Rizhao Port Mike powder 447, PB powder 470, Yang Di powder 383; Qingdao Port Yang Di powder 386, PB powder 470, mixed powder 323. (Unit: RMB / ton)
Steel spot
Construction steel: Today's domestic construction steel prices continue to rise, and the growth rate narrows. In terms of specific prices, the average price of 25 major cities nationwide was 4,218 yuan/ton, which was 23 yuan/ton higher than that of the previous trading day. The price in the northeast region increased sharply; the rest of the region continued to rise; only the East China region showed differentiation. The price has a correction. At present, yesterday's national market transactions have been heavily heavy, and the market demand has partially overdrafted. Therefore, today's demand has shrunk, and with the futures lower, the end-user wait-and-see mood has become stronger. In terms of specific markets, the market opened in early trading continued to rise, but the market trading atmosphere was relatively light, and the mid-term snails were lower, and some markets experienced a dark drop in shipments. On the whole, although the demand has shrunk, the current market stocks are lower, and some areas have more specifications and breaks. It is expected that the domestic construction steel will be narrowly arranged tomorrow.
Hot-rolled coils: Today's hot rolling prices in 24 major cities nationwide rose slightly. The average price of 3.0 hot-rolled coils was 4,278 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the national average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils was 4215. Yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the early morning, the market continued its upward trend, and the business mentality was more optimistic. However, with the fall of futures and the shrinking of transactions, some market prices fell slightly in the afternoon. In the short term, low stocks have certain support for the market, but the low demand also restricts the price. In addition, the market price of steel billet rose by RMB 20/ton, and the current price of carbon billet was RMB 3,660/ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the hot-rolled market will fluctuate tomorrow.
Medium and heavy plate: Today, the domestic plate market price continues to run stronger. The average price of 20mm medium and heavy plate in 23 major cities nationwide is 4,419 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market price in the early trading market is still mainly based on the increase, because most of the regional spot stocks have no pressure, and the overall market mentality is still biased at this stage, so the price maintains an upward trend. In the afternoon, although the price of Tangshan billet rose by 3,660 yuan / ton, the overall trend of the electronic disk market is slightly weaker. Therefore, it is expected that the price of the domestic plate market will become stronger and stronger tomorrow.
Cold rolling: Today's national cold rolling prices have risen. Price: 1.0 national cold rolling average price of 4,640 yuan / ton, compared with the previous working day price rose 11 yuan / ton. The main market price: Shanghai market 1.0mm WISCO coil plate offer 4580 yuan / ton, Guangzhou market 1.0mm Angang coil offer 4600 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 1.0mm Angang coil offer 4480 yuan / ton. Market: Today's futures continued yesterday's gains, but the gains narrowed. Some of the market's feedback resources were tight, and some of the mainstream steel mills lacked specifications. The market price rose slightly, and the transaction fell back compared with yesterday. According to the statistics of our network, this website monitors the inventory of 23 cities. This week, the cold rolling inventory was 1,140,100 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons from last week. The business mentality has returned to caution, and it is expected that the cold rolling price will be more likely to fluctuate within a narrow range tomorrow.
Profile: Today's domestic profile prices are slightly stronger, the overall increase is about 20-40 yuan / ton, most of which are mainly to compensate. Judging from the current market situation, the overall resource is relatively neat, and the spot price is generally dominated by shipments, so the price increase is small. The H-beams continue to rise with the steel enterprises, resulting in high spot costs, and in addition to the shortage of specifications in most areas, so the price is mostly up. As far as the market outlook is concerned, even if the demand support is insufficient, considering the current continuous decline in inventory and higher costs, the spot price will remain high in the short term.
Steel pipe: Today, the price of domestic steel pipe has risen. According to the variety: the average price of welded pipe 4 inch *3.75mm is 4433 yuan / ton, up 25 yuan / ton from the previous trading day; galvanized pipe 4 inch * 3.75mm nationwide The price was 5,292 yuan / ton, up 16 yuan / ton from the previous trading day; the average price of seamless pipe Ф 108 * 4.5mm was 5,248 yuan / ton, up 8 yuan / ton from the previous trading day. Regarding the pipe factory, the price of Tianjin Youfa, Juncheng and Lida has not been adjusted. The hot rolling price of Linyi mainstream seamless pipe factory is 4750-4800 yuan/ton. In terms of welded pipes and galvanized pipes, the market transactions are general, and traders are quicker to go in and out, and there is no significant replenishment intention. In terms of seamless pipes, market transactions are still relatively poor. Shandong Pipe Factory is subject to cost support to raise the ex-factory price. Traders still rely on digesting old inventories, and the price push will take some time. It is expected that the market price of steel pipe will continue to fluctuate and adjust tomorrow.
Futures: Today, the domestic black commodity futures weakened and fell, among which the finished products led the decline, the double-focus fell slightly, the iron ore resisted falling, the funds as a whole flowed out, and the transaction was slightly heavy. Specifically, the black system in the early morning was driven by the iron ore. However, with the sharp escape of the profitable profit of the finished products, the prices have plunged sharply. The market remained weak in the afternoon and continued to explore. The overall situation showed a slight correction after the increase. The market is still in a bullish trend. From the point of view of the Snail Day K, today's thread receives the Yinxian line, which is equivalent to the actual Yangxian line yesterday. After the short-term adjustment, the market is expected to continue to move upwards in the case of a good fundamentals. The above suggestions are recommended, and the bargain-hunting is long. Pay attention to the position.
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