Analysis of the development status and prospects of the solar industry

As a new energy source, solar energy has received increasing attention from various countries in the context of global warming. At the recent World Expo, the dream of the Expo theme pavilion built a "Sun City" dream, which is shining on the roof of the landmark building of the Shanghai World Expo Park, such as the China Pavilion. In addition to the roof, on the sides of the park road and in the Expo Village, a variety of photovoltaic power generation devices will be scaled up. This not only reflects the concept of science and technology and green in Shanghai World Expo, but also vividly reflects China's efforts to address climate change and improve energy structure. Therefore, it is of practical significance to study the development status of the solar industry at home and abroad and predict the development trend.

I. Development status of foreign energy industry
Japan, Germany and the United States are the most powerful countries to promote photovoltaic power generation systems. According to the data, the EU hopes to install 3GW photovoltaic power generation units in 2010, increasing to around 200GW in 2030. The United States expects total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation to reach 36GW in 2020. Japan plans to install nearly 5 GW by 2010.

Japan implemented the "Asahi Seven Year Plan" in 1994 and has installed nearly 70,000 solar roofs. It is estimated that 1 million solar roofs will be installed by 2010. In 2000, Germany passed the Renewable Energy Law to encourage renewable energy by purchasing electricity at a fixed price. In April 2004, Germany further supplemented the revision of the renewable energy law, which led to a significant increase in the number of photovoltaic power generation systems in Germany in 2004. The largest photovoltaic power system installation area. According to data provided by Solarbuzz, in 2004, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation systems in Germany was 361 MW, an increase of 152% year-on-year, accounting for 39% of the global total; Japan's installed capacity of 278 MW accounted for 30% of the global total. The installed capacity of Germany and Japan accounts for more than two-thirds of the world's total. At present, China's battery products are also mainly exported to the above two countries. The United States announced a million-foot roof plan in 1997 and plans to install photovoltaic power and photothermal systems on 1 million roofs by 2010.

In the past ten years, with the sharp increase in the demand for the world photovoltaic market and the continuous improvement of large-scale manufacturing technology, the rapid development of the world photovoltaic industry has been promoted. The output of photovoltaic cells has increased from 78.6 MW in 1995 to 1727 MW in 2005. The average annual growth rate reached 32.4%. It is foreseeable that the world's PV production scale will maintain an average annual growth rate of more than 20% in the next 15 years, and even more optimistic estimates that by 2010, global solar energy production will increase by 4 times, sales revenue will increase by 3 times, and profit will increase by 3 times. .

The world's photovoltaic cell manufacturing is mainly concentrated in developed countries such as Japan, Germany, the United States, and Spain. Among them, Japan's photovoltaic cell production reached 833 MW in 2005, accounting for nearly half of the world's PV market share. Mainland China has entered the world's top ten photovoltaic manufacturing countries. In 2005, the output of photovoltaic cells was 128MW, ranking fourth in the world, accounting for 7.4% of the world market share.

In May of this year, the State Secretary of the Tunisian Ministry of Industry responsible for renewable energy announced at a press conference that in the context of the 2009-2014 presidential plan on energy and the environment, the Prosoles project was developed and it is estimated that at least 5,000 houses will be completed by 2014. With the installation of solar photovoltaic power plants, the government and the power company will support the residential industry to use photovoltaic power generation by providing a number of incentives. Within the plan, the National Energy Fund (FNME) will provide 30% of the installation investment cost for residents applying for PV installations. STEG will provide inverters free of charge, and residents will receive a 5-year period of 3000. The Dinar loan is repaid on a STEG electricity bill. In the field of renewable energy, the third phase of the energy-saving plan implemented in recent years has achieved good results. In 2007, the rational use of energy is equivalent to saving 700 tons of oil, accounting for 8% of the national energy consumption. The goal of the fourth phase of 2008-2011 is to increase the reasonable utilization rate of energy to 20% and make renewable energy reach 13% of the national annual energy consumption.

It can be seen that Tunisia attaches importance to the development of the solar energy industry.

Second, the status quo of domestic energy industry development - taking water heaters as an example
With the increasing global supply of traditional energy, new energy is not only sought after by many companies, but also highly valued by the state and governments at all levels, among which the solar industry is particularly popular. According to the latest data released by the Solar Energy Association, the output of solar water heaters nationwide is growing at a rate of 30% per year. In 2009, the annual output of solar water heaters exceeded 40 million square meters, accounting for 50% of the world, and the number of solar water heaters reached 145 million square meters. About 70% of the world's total, China has become the world's largest producer and user of solar water heaters. Only the annual promotion of the collector area of ​​a company in Norit is equivalent to the total installation area of ​​the entire EU, twice that of North America. However, among the nearly 6,000 solar water heater enterprises in China, there are less than 20 enterprises that have independent research and development capabilities and large-scale production. The rest are mostly local small brands and miscellaneous brands, and even many are small family-owned enterprises. These small enterprises are forced by survival and competitive pressures, backward production processes, chaotic quality management, product inspections, and even behaviors that seriously affect the reputation of the industry, such as cutting corners and low-cost dumping, resulting in chaotic solar market order and many hidden dangers. Some companies even face a crisis of survival.

1. The industry standard is too low, the enterprise Yulong mixed
At present, the industry standard for solar water heaters is only a handful of GB/T19141-2003 "Technical Conditions for Domestic Solar Water Heating Systems" and GB/T18708-2002 "Test Methods for Thermal Performance of Domestic Solar Water Heating Systems". On the one hand, the national standards are too low. For example, the national standard only stipulates the pressure bearing capacity of the water heater liner, and does not stipulate the corrosion resistance, and the weld seam is particularly prone to corrosion and water leakage; on the other hand, the industry standard is missing, for example, the national standard does not make relevant regulations for the outdoor pipeline. In the winter, when the pipeline is frozen, it happens.

The industry standards are too low, making the solar industry a mixed bag, and the quality of the company is uneven. China's solar water heater industry has not implemented a production license system, and does not need to pass 3C mandatory certification. In the case of imperfect standards, many companies without production qualifications are involved. The low threshold of the industry has also allowed many companies to step into this field without any obstacles. Some workshop-style enterprises can customize solar water heaters like “made shoes”, and product quality and after-sales service are difficult to guarantee.

2, price wars aggravate the survival crisis, unfavorable long-term development
In the field of high homogenization of solar water heaters, companies that do not have outstanding advantages and do not have core technologies have only chosen to reduce production costs repeatedly to cope with price wars. Some companies often use low-cost raw materials for production and then sell them at low prices. This practice not only further aggravates the cruelty of competition, but also causes some solar water heaters to have many quality problems such as water leakage, no water supply, and poor pressure resistance.

In a "China Solar Water Heater Consumption Status Survey Report", consumers showed low satisfaction with the solar water heater industry, 41.5% of users said they were extremely dissatisfied, most of them reflected poor quality of solar water heater products, after-sales service On the low or technical content of the product, and even consumers have reported that the water heater has just been bought for only one day, and the water inside has leaked out.

“The market is too small and the competition is too big.” Chen Yang, the former sales manager of Feiyang Solar Technology Co., Ltd., said that in the face of the trend of competition, there is no better alternative than the suspension of production. According to relevant data, nearly 80% of solar water heater companies are experiencing different degrees of sales decline and inventory increase. Among them, there are many enterprises that have been forced to stop production like Hubei Feiyang Solar Technology Co., Ltd.

According to industry insiders, due to the rapid increase in solar water heater enterprises in recent years, the production capacity has increased significantly, but the corresponding market has not expanded.

At the same time, due to the weather, the consumption demand of solar water heaters has been suppressed to some extent. Many companies are vying for a bowl of porridge, and they will surely get rid of the bloodshed. Many enterprises will go bankrupt and stop production.

3, the degree of branding is low, the brand effect needs to be strengthened
“In fact, the suspension of production by small enterprises is a good thing for the entire solar industry.” Dr. Xu Gang, a researcher at the Guangzhou Energy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, believes that the elimination of these low-tech products with poor product quality is positive for the sound development of the entire industry. of. For the future development direction of solar energy companies, industry experts generally believe that while expanding the product field, brand building is a top priority. “Solar water heater companies want to win in the fierce competition, only from the brand creation.”

As a leading company in the industry, since its establishment in 2001, Linuoruite has been adhering to the tenet of “Developing the world's famous brand with the responsibility of the sun”, and has accumulated a low profile and a low profile. They not only introduced the world's advanced solar energy technology, but also digested, absorbed and re-innovated, mastered the core technology of solar energy, and applied the rigorous work style of Germans to every detail of production and service, which was widely received by consumers. Appreciation.

While insisting on technological innovation, Linuoruite has successively cooperated with schools and enterprises in many famous universities such as Tsinghua University and Shandong Jianzhu University, setting off the banner of technological innovation in the industry. The “Key Technology Development and Application of Solar Energy and Shallow Geothermal Energy in Buildings” project jointly completed by Linuoruite and Shandong Jianzhu University has realized the perfect combination of solar energy and shallow geothermal energy in building energy conservation. The “2009 National Science and Technology Progress Second Prize” was also added to the name of Linuoruite Solar and Building Integration Experts.

At the same time, Linuoruite, which has been committed to guiding the correct development direction of the industry, is the first to take the lead in industry services. In addition to the declaration of “Building the first service brand in China's solar energy industry”, it also launched the “139 Sunshine Angel, Gold Service” concept of “One-dimensional, Three-Full, and Nine-Free”. At the same time, 15,000 solar rescue centers were launched nationwide, and all solar water heaters without after-sales service were maintained and repaired around the clock.

The relevant person in charge of Linuoruite said that the solar energy industry is a sunrise industry, and every step of its development has made people full of confidence and expectation for improving the environment, saving energy and reducing emissions. However, various problems will inevitably occur in the process of industry development. After the reshuffle of the big waves, companies without core competitiveness will definitely be out, and those that have specific advantages in terms of brand, technology and channels will be left behind.

Third, the development trend of the solar industry
1. Experts believe that “solar building integration is the future development trend”

In recent years, under the background of energy-saving and low-carbon winds, building energy conservation has also become a hot spot of concern in all walks of life. Relevant data show that at present, China's building energy consumption accounts for 30% of the total energy consumption, and the heating energy consumption per unit of building area is three times that of developed countries. About 95% of new buildings are energy-intensive buildings each year. Therefore, the improvement of the energy conservation and emission reduction level of the construction industry is of great significance to improving the low carbon level of the entire national economy.

In addition, related research also shows that in 2009 the total solar water heaters and hot water systems in the country reached 145 million square meters. Calculated according to the market price of ordinary coal, it is equivalent to saving 22.5 billion yuan; based on the average market price of commercial electricity, it is equivalent to saving 56 billion yuan. At the same time, the 145 million square meters of heat collection area can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 45.51 million tons a year. However, when the penetration rate of mobile phones, home appliances, automobiles, etc. is getting higher and higher, it is in stark contrast to the fact that there are very few solar energy products actually used in domestic urban households.

Even the urban penetration rate of the lowest solar water heaters is far behind the market growth rate of gas and electric water heaters, not to mention the solar building integration that is of great significance in energy conservation and environmental protection. It is particularly noteworthy that although solar energy has made solar energy a fire in the countryside, the use of solar energy in urban high-rise buildings has been slow.

From the current situation, there is still a lack of unified planning and standards for solar energy and building integration. In order to promote the integration of solar energy and building, the country established the only national residential industrialization base in the solar energy industry in Linuoruite in 2007. In the past three years, Linuoruite has promoted 34 million square meters of solar energy and building integrated residential projects. M, the equivalent of a new city that created a completely low-carbon solar home.

Industry experts have pointed out that in the future, when planning the building, special consideration should be given to energy-saving factors, such as the need to reserve interfaces for solar water heaters. On the other hand, when solar energy enters urban construction, the construction cost will increase. Therefore, on the one hand, it is necessary to reduce the cost by upgrading the industrial scale, and on the other hand, the government needs to introduce a tilt policy to support it.

2. Accelerate the development of the photovoltaic industry
In recent years, photovoltaic power generation has developed rapidly in the world. In 2007, the global installed capacity of solar energy reached 2,826 mwp, of which Germany accounted for 47%, Spain accounted for 23%, Japan accounted for 8%, and the United States accounted for 8%. In 2007, a large amount of investment in the solar photovoltaic industry chain was concentrated on the improvement of new production capacity. In addition, the amount of loan financing of solar photovoltaic companies increased by nearly 10 billion US dollars in 2007, making the scale of the industry continue to expand. Although affected by the financial crisis, Germany and Spain have reduced their support for solar photovoltaic power generation, but the policy support of other countries has increased year by year. The Japanese government issued the "Solar Power Generation Popularization Action Plan" in November 2008, and determined that the development goal of solar power generation by 2030 is 40 times that of 2005, and after 3-5 years, the price of solar cell systems will drop. About half of the current. In 2009, a special grant of 3 billion yen was also arranged to specifically encourage the development of solar battery technology. On September 16, 2008, the US Senate passed a package of tax reduction plans, which will extend the tax reduction policy (itc) of the photovoltaic industry for 2-6 years. China's solar energy resources are very rich, with theoretical reserves of 1.70 billion tons of standard coal per year. The potential for the development and utilization of solar energy resources is very broad. China's photovoltaic power generation industry started in the 1970s and entered a period of steady development in the mid-1990s. The output of solar cells and components has steadily increased year by year. After more than 30 years of hard work, it has ushered in a new stage of rapid development. Under the strong leadership of the “Guangming Project” pilot project and the “Power Transmission to Township” project and the world PV market, China's photovoltaic power generation industry has developed rapidly.

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