The main content of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" will be based on the people's livelihood as the main line, with the economic structural adjustment as the goal, and then achieve the economic development goals of sustainable economic development. Among them, expanding domestic demand has become one of the important keywords in planning, while domestic demand mainly includes two aspects of consumption and investment. This version has already launched a series of consumer articles on Tuesday, so today we will mainly analyze the impact of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†on the beneficiary industry from the perspective of investment and explore the investment opportunities.
From the perspective of investment, the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period will focus on the regional planning of the central and western regions and the development of affordable housing in cities and towns, which will determine that equipment manufacturing, railway infrastructure, medical reform, and new energy vehicles are still in a period of growth. Its over-enhanced cycle characteristics have led to historically low valuations, so there is room for stock price gains in these industries due to valuation repairs and further growth.
Equipment manufacturing "Made in China" upgrade is an urgent task
At present, due to the lack of core technology, OEM production is still a common mode of survival for “Made in Chinaâ€. In order to achieve China’s strategic goal of national competitiveness in a comprehensive, strong, key first-class and overall advanced country by 2020, “ The 12th Five-Year Plan will focus on high-end equipment manufacturing.
The large-scale equipment manufacturing industry is a high-end field of manufacturing. The high-tech and advanced management mode in manufacturing is basically reflected in the equipment manufacturing industry. The largest part of the manufacturing profit space is also the equipment manufacturing industry. The equipment manufacturing industry represents the direction of the entire manufacturing industry and determines the level of the entire manufacturing industry. These include large-scale equipment manufacturers such as heavy machinery, ships, aircraft, power generation equipment, large boilers, metallurgical machinery, mining machinery, and special equipment.
It is understood that in the satellite industry for high-end equipment manufacturing, the Beidou II and Beidou three-generation satellite networks will become one of the four major navigation systems in the world. The listed companies related to ground equipment will be Beidouxingtong and Guoteng Electronics. (300101, shares it), Hezhong Shuangzhuang (002383, shares it) and satellite applications company China Satellite (600118, shares it) will be expected to be favored by funds.
The structural adjustment of grid investment has deepened. From the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" announced by the State Grid and the smart grid bidding situation, the focus of power grid construction will focus on the development of UHV and smart grid. The UHV “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†announced in August proposed to complete the structural layout of “Three Horizontal, Three Vertical and One Ring Network†in 2015. In this plan, a total of about 9,000 kilometers of new AC lines were added, 29 new substations were built, DC lines were about 23,000 kilometers, and 21 new converter stations were built. It is estimated that the investment in the "12th Five-Year Plan" UHV project will reach 310 billion yuan. In the next 10 years, a grand industrial chain driven by the smart grid is slowly unfolding.
In addition, some analysts believe that if the growth rate of social fixed assets investment in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period is controlled at around 20%, in 2015, China's market demand for construction machinery will reach 900 billion yuan. In 2009, the scale of domestic fixed assets investment reached 22.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.8 times compared with less than 3.3 trillion yuan in 2000. During the period, the market size of the construction machinery industry increased by 5.46 times. The investment in urbanization, highways, wind power and nuclear power construction will be the main source of power for the construction machinery industry to achieve rapid growth in the next five to ten years.
Railway infrastructure railway construction enters the era of high-speed rail
According to data released by the Ministry of Railways recently, in the first three quarters of this year, the national railway completed fixed assets investment increased by 26.6% year-on-year, reaching 491.246 billion yuan, of which infrastructure investment was 429.86 billion yuan, up 26.3% year-on-year.
According to the currently announced construction projects, the mileage of China's railways will reach 110,000 kilometers in 2012, and the railway mileage target in the medium- and long-term railway planning is only over 120,000 kilometers. Judging from the current 12th Five-Year Plan for the National Development and Reform Commission, the enthusiasm for building railways is extremely high, and the possibility of railway construction exceeding the medium and long-term planning is extremely high.
At present, the railway infrastructure is at the peak of investment. At the same time, in the context of the coordinated development of the domestic regional economy, the scale of the long-term construction of the domestic railway network is the trend of the times.
Securities expects that with the increase in railway mileage in the 12th Five-Year Plan, the significant increase in the industry's profit growth will bring the industry's valuation level back to the dynamic P/E ratio of 20 to 30 times. Therefore, the industry stocks will have a rising space of 100%-200%.
It is particularly noteworthy that after entering the 21st century, China's railway construction has entered the era of high-speed rail. In 2008, China built the first high-speed railway with a speed of more than 300 kilometers per hour, and the Beijing-Tianjin inter-city railway. In 2009, China owned the world. The high-speed railway Wuhan-Guangzhou passenger line with the longest operation speed is the one with the longest mileage. As of mid-2010, China's high-speed rail operating mileage reached 6,920 kilometers, ranking first in the world.
In 2012, China will build an 8-hour high-speed rail traffic circle centered on Beijing. According to the newly adjusted medium and long-term railway network plan, by 2012, the mileage of China's railway operations will increase from the current 80,000 km to 110,000 km, of which high-speed rail. The passenger line will reach 18,000 kilometers.
Securities said that the "double-rail" has gained a lot, and China's high-speed rail has entered the global market. In recent years, Chinese railway construction enterprises represented by China Railway Group and China Railway Construction have won large orders in the overseas railway market.
Ocean engineering has become a new growth point for the national economy
According to media reports, the biggest highlight of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†is that the relevant enterprises will build another 50 million tons of capacity on the offshore shelf and the continental slope of China during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, and the total investment in marine engineering equipment will exceed 2,500. 100 million yuan. In this regard, many marine engineering ship companies will also get a share of the orders brought by the plan.
China has 18,000 kilometers of mainland coastline, with more than 6,500 islands with an area of ​​more than 500 square meters. There are many kinds of marine resources. Marine resources, oil and gas, solid minerals, renewable energy, coastal tourism and other resources are abundant, and the development potential is huge. China's marine development is welcoming unprecedented opportunities. The Party Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to the positive response of the coastal government departments. With the implementation of the eastern development strategy, the development of marine economic science has become inevitable. Under the guidance of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", through the adjustment, optimization, upgrading and transformation of the marine industry, especially the development of strategic emerging marine industries, the contribution rate of the marine economy to the national economy will inevitably be further enhanced, and the offshore engineering industry will be listed. The company will also face significant development opportunities.
The marine economy has been making continuous contributions to the national economy and is constantly improving. In 2009, the total value of marine production in China exceeded 3 trillion yuan, reaching 3.1964 trillion yuan, and the total value of marine production accounted for nearly one-tenth of GDP. According to this trend, the future will become a potential pillar of the national economy. The development potential of the ocean has long been of concern to all countries in the world, and China's marine economy needs to continue to deepen its understanding of the ocean.
The industries involved in the offshore engineering equipment industry include offshore oil and gas development, offshore platform manufacturing, ancillary equipment manufacturing, oil and gas exploration services, and equipment design-related listed companies.
According to industry insiders, in the A-share market, listed companies involved in offshore engineering include China Shipbuilding, China Heavy Industry, and CIMC, which are engaged in offshore oil and gas development. The offshore platform manufacturing business includes Zhenhua Heavy Industry and Guangzhou Shipyard International; It is the leader of offshore oil helicopter service; in terms of oil and gas exploration services, COSL has strong strength; there are also many companies involved in the design of equipment, such as Shanghai Jiahao, Jiangdui, Jerry, and Shenkai. Instrument, oil and gas tree and oil analyzer; Baode has electronic control automation products for drilling and mining equipment; Angang Steel Co., Ltd. provides offshore equipment steel; Jiuli special material provides stainless steel welded pipe for oil and gas transportation; Lifting equipment sling spreaders have become an indispensable tool, and Zhongtian Technology can provide submarine optical cables.
China's marine economy has maintained a strong momentum of development in the first decade of the new century. The data show that the average annual growth rate of marine production is 16.12%, far higher than the GDP growth rate during the same period. In the second decade of the 21st century, at the level of the country's new strategic support, China's ocean development will enter a new stage and is expected to become a new growth point for the national economy.