Tao Dong: The price of oil is broken again.

Extreme turmoil continues to hang over the global risk asset market, with home oil and China A shares last week. The oil oligarchy has not seen any increase in control of production. The International Energy Organization has lowered its oil demand forecast, making oil prices the target of short-selling. Brent oil prices are approaching the $60 mark per barrel, and WTI has already taken the lead. The strong consumer confidence in the United States and the second round of TLTRO launched by the European Central Bank could not prevent the risk aversion of funds. The panic index broke through 21 and surged 63% in the week. The US and European stock markets fell, and funds flocked to the safe haven. Treasury bond interest rates fell to 2.08%, Germany's ten-year period also wrote a record of 0.63%. At the same time, the corporate bond market was strong, and the average interest rate of junk bonds rose to 7%. China's stock market is struggling with turbulent market sentiment and mixed news, and the new tone of the economic work conference and the worst industrial production since 1990 (six-month average) are not able to set a new direction for the market. Big ups and downs. The European Central Bank injected liquidity into the banks, but the banks were not active in the auction and the euro exchange rate rose slightly.

The International Energy Organization cut its forecast for daily oil demand by 230,000 barrels in 2015. The organization believes that demand in China and Europe is more eclipsed than before. Weak demand, the crude oil market, which has already had overcapacity, has been overwhelmed by oil prices and oil company stocks. The low oil price has improved the actual purchasing power of consumers, which is equivalent to tax cuts and is conducive to domestic demand. However, the oil industry and the shale gas industry have drastically reduced their investment plans. The market has doubts about the financial sustainability of some companies, borrowing costs have risen, and default risks have loomed. The reversal of the oil price trend has had a significant impact on global inflation expectations, adding some room for manoeuvre to the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike plan, and adding some concerns to the deflationary outlook of the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the People's Bank of China. The change in oil prices has caused the pressure on individual parts of the economy to rise sharply. This is a hidden worry that is difficult to estimate.

The University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index has not received the most attention from the market most of the time, but there are exceptions, with the exception of the November data. Employment improvement, stock market boom, and falling oil prices have pushed consumer confidence to the top of the previous cycle. In the US employment and consumption data, it is revealed that the economy seems to shift from medium intensity to strong growth. Although the economic recovery is unstable and the strength continues to strengthen, it is difficult for the Fed to turn a blind eye. In a statement after the December 16-17 meeting, the author expects the Fed to remove the long-term use of the word "considerable time" and warn that the rate hike will enter the countdown. At the same time, the Open Market Committee should introduce a new moderate expression, indicating that ultra-low interest rates and ultra-loose monetary environment still exist, so as to appease the market sentiment and curb rising financing costs. The author still puts the Fed's first rate hike in the second quarter of next year, and the most likely time is in June.

This week's focus: the Federal Reserve meeting and the Japanese parliamentary elections, this Sunday, the possibility of Japan's election of the Liberal Democratic Party ruling coalition to obtain two-thirds of the House of Representatives is not small. Greece's election on Wednesday, the Greek president estimated that half of the Congress could not get approval. The US CPI in November estimated a negative ring value, core inflation was zero; the number of newly started housing improved. In the euro zone, the PMI quick report is generally flat. The Bank of England’s last meeting record, there is not much opposition. The EU CPI is expected to be the same as last month. In the Asia-Pacific region, in addition to the Japanese elections, the short-term data is expected to be flat, and the Bank of Japan's regular meeting estimates that there are no policy changes. China HSBC PMI quick report, it is possible to break the 50 mark.

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