At present, most market analysts believe that the inflation situation this year will continue to be moderate, and the expected increase will not exceed 2.5%. However, from the recent signs or signs, five factors may cause inflation to rise more than expected in 2018.
First, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol has gradually come out of the downturn.
Among the adjusted CPI weights, the proportion of food, tobacco and alcohol is still as high as 30%. In 2018, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol will gradually go out of the downturn. The reasons or performance mainly have the following four aspects: First, the price of food in 2017 will increase by -1.7%, which is the lowest increase in history (see Figure 1), and will face 2017 in 2018. The upward pressure caused by the low base effect. Second, the price of pork, which has the greatest impact on food prices, is in a downward trend. This is due to the ceiling effect of large-scale farming on the efficiency of pig breeding. In addition, the low base effect of pork prices in 2017 is also worthy of attention. Third, some consumer goods such as beer have an off-season price increase. In the near future, Maotai and other liquors collectively increased prices, followed by snow, Qingdao and other beer prices in the off-season. China Resources Snow and Tsingtao Brewery said in the price adjustment letter: due to rising raw material prices, increased labor costs, increased transportation costs and environmental taxes For other reasons, production costs increase. Fourth, the price of edible agricultural products has bottomed out. Since the second half of 2017, the price index of edible agricultural products released by the Ministry of Commerce has risen from 108.22 to 118 on January 19, an increase of nearly 10%, and the bottoming out trend has been established (see Figure 2).
Second, domestic refined oil prices still have a large room for growth.
The impact of oil prices is extremely wide, and international crude oil prices continue to strengthen, which will drive fuel-related sub-items in CPI to rise and raise prices in PPI-related industries. Since the second half of last year, the price of Brent crude oil has risen from US$45/barrel to US$70/barrel in mid-January, an increase of 55.6%. At the same time, according to the refined oil price formation mechanism determined by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2013, domestic gasoline prices and international crude oil price fluctuations are almost synchronized. However, since 2017, domestic gasoline price increases have lagged behind the rise in crude oil prices (see Figure 3). . Therefore, the pressure of the early international oil price increase for the late inflation can not be ignored, even if the international crude oil maintains the current level, there is still room for upward adjustment of domestic refined oil prices.
Third, wages and labor costs are still on the rise.
In recent years, the decline in China's economic growth has not had a significant impact on new jobs. In 2017, the number of new urban employment in the country has stabilized at 13 million for five consecutive years, exceeding the government's target of 10 million. Reflected in the labor market, the national job market's job-seeking ratio reached 1.16 at the end of the third quarter of 2017, the highest level since statistics. Correspondingly, the sub-indicator of the CPI, which best reflects the supply and demand of the labor market, the price of living services has risen to 1.6% in December 2017, and the increase in family services has remained above 4% for a long time. It can be seen from the long-term perspective that the current rising labor cost in China is still continuing, which will be an important factor in the cost-driven inflationary pressure.
Fourth, the price increase of service prices in CPI is strong.
In 2018, there are three factors in the rise in service prices that deserve high attention:
First of all, medical reform has made the price of medical services more powerful. In March 2017, the National Medical Reform Work Conference requested that the drug addition of public hospitals be completely abolished before September of that year, which fundamentally shakes the “medical treatment†system for many years. According to the data, in 2014, the three sources of income of public hospitals—medical service project charges, sales of drug revenues, and state financial subsidies accounted for 54.3%, 37.9%, and 7.8%, respectively. The increase in financial subsidies made it difficult to keep up with drug sales. The decline will inevitably lead to a substantial increase in medical service charges. In December 2017, the price of medical services in CPI rose by as much as 8%, while the price increase of medicines remained above 5%. As the medical reform continues, the upward trend in medical service prices will continue.
Secondly, the simultaneous purchase and purchase of the real estate market and the reform of the tenancy and sale rights will exert greater pressure on the price of housing in the CPI. For a long time, the rent price in China's CPI is difficult to reflect the increase in the actual living cost of residents. The reason is that only the building and decoration materials, housing rent, self-owned housing, water and electricity, etc. are considered in the CPI residential sub-item. It is based on the rent of similar housing of the same market value, indirectly estimating the housing consumption of the self-owned housing, which is not completely equal to the actual rental increase. At the same time, the rental rate of rent in most cities in the country is below 3%. One of the reasons is that it is difficult to rent a house to enjoy the treatment of property rights in the household registration, medical care, and education. As the central level promotes the right to rent and sell across the country, the future rental price will be expected to be repaired upwards, thus promoting the rise of CPI housing.
Finally, the continuous upgrading of the consumption structure of residents will also cause long-term pressure on the price increase of CPI services. In 2017, the national urban and rural Engel coefficient (residential food consumption expenditure ratio) was 28.6% and 31.2% respectively (see Figure 4). The national overall Engel coefficient of 29.3% has reached the United Nations rich standard (30%). Under the general trend of consumption upgrade, the consumer demand for consumer services is growing rapidly. The continuous increase in labor costs mentioned above will make the price of service in CPI face the pressure of long-term rise.
Fifth, the transmission effect of high PPI growth in the early stage on CPI is worthy of attention.
The current high PPI growth has not played a significant role in driving CPI. The reason may be that the strong rebound of PPI since the second half of 2016 is mainly due to the excess industry (coal, steel, cement, etc.) pushed by administrative means. The de-capacity has caused the PPI index of the mining industry, raw material industry and processing industry to rise sharply in the PPI, while the price of living materials in the PPI is mainly concentrated in the downstream industry, and the increase rate is always below 1%. However, the cumulative price increase in the upstream sector in 2018 will continue to slow the delivery of downstream manufactured goods and living materials. Therefore, in 2018, the CPI rose moderately and the PPI fell steadily. The gap between the two is expected to further close.
On the whole, although the decision-making department and most market analysts seem to have peace of mind for inflation risks in 2018, they are driven by factors such as rebound in oil prices, falling pig prices, medical price hikes, and rebound in agricultural prices, while the global economy, especially The United States is also in the midst of inflationary trends, coupled with uncertainties such as climate change affecting food and agricultural prices, and we cannot overestimate the pressure of rising prices.
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