Last Friday, a study by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the National Venture Capital Association based on Thomson Reuters data showed that in the just-concluded third quarter of 2010, total US venture capital fell by 7% year-on-year. Another drop in data may surprise more people. In the third quarter of 2010, investment in clean technology fell from $1.5 billion in the second quarter to $625 million. Compared with the same period last year, it has also dropped by nearly one-third. By industry, the software industry received more than $1 billion in the third quarter of 2010 and $943 million in biotechnology. Clean technology can only be ranked third.
Among all clean technologies, the decline in solar investment was particularly pronounced, from $451 million in the third quarter of 2009 to $144 million in the third quarter of 2010. It can be seen that in the past quarter, the reduction in venture capital was mainly from the solar industry compared with the same period last year. In the past two years, governments from the United States to China have promoted the development and application of clean technologies, especially solar energy, on a large scale globally. Some surveys and research on venture capital also show that most venture capital investment in clean technology is also the focus of investment in the next few years. The results of this survey are believed to surprise some people. In fact, in the United States, venture capital investment in clean technologies, including solar energy, has been declining since the last year or two. In 2007, US investment in clean technology accounted for more than one-third of total venture capital. But throughout 2009, investment in clean technology continued to decline every quarter. The industry accounted for less than 20% of the total investment. Although there has been a certain rebound in the first half of this year, recent surveys still reflect the lower-than-expected popularity of clean technology. So why does US venture capital not pursue the hottest, government-supported cleantech industry, especially solar energy?
In fact, this has some close relationship with our domestic solar industry. A few years ago, some solar companies in Silicon Valley, such as Solyndra, Nanosolar, and MiaSole, began investing in the development of a new generation of thin-film solar technology, hoping to bring innovative changes to solar modules. Compared with the polysilicon production technology commonly used by solar energy companies in China, the photoelectric conversion efficiency of thin film solar cells is low. But the biggest advantage of thin-film solar cells is that they can not use the silicon raw materials that are in short supply and expensive in the past few years. The cost of thin-film solar cells will drop significantly, and the energy consumption will be significantly lower than that of polycrystalline silicon solar cells. If the photoelectric conversion efficiency can be further improved, there will be a large-scale market demand. Of course, thin-film solar technology is also more difficult, and is considered to be the next-generation solar cell technology after polycrystalline silicon solar cells. These companies are usually founded by veterans of some Silicon Valley chip and storage systems companies. These companies are also attracting billions of venture capital investments in the revolutionary changes and market prospects that the solar industry may generate. In Silicon Valley, which has created many industry myths such as semiconductors, personal computers, and the Internet, they have reason to dream of becoming Intel, Cisco, or Apple in the solar industry. The ability to use new solar cell production methods to reduce production costs and change the entire industry.
But when these companies finally started mass production, the market environment has undergone tremendous changes. Due to the overcapacity caused by the excessive launch of polysilicon in recent years, coupled with the impact of the financial crisis, the price of polysilicon materials has dropped significantly. Moreover, in the post-crisis era, governments, especially the Chinese government, have subsidized the solar industry in many ways. China's polysilicon solar cell manufacturers have been able to provide cheaper crystalline silicon solar cells and quickly seize the global solar cell market at an unexpected rate. Share. This poses a huge challenge for the new generation of thin film solar companies in the United States. They have disrupted their plans and timetables to change solar cell production technology and competitive landscape. After spending a lot of time and money to develop new technologies, American companies have had to start thinking about the R&D and production costs of new technologies in advance.
Although the United States from the government to the private support for solar companies like Solyndra is still very large. US President Barack Obama even personally inspected Solyndra's new factory and personally endorsed it, claiming that the real engine of economic growth always comes from companies like Solyndra. At the same time, the federal government has provided more than $500 million in loan guarantees for its newly opened factories. But while the new plant is under construction, China's low-cost solar manufacturers have been able to reduce the price of polysilicon solar cells by 40%. Low-cost competition from China has weakened the advantages of the new generation of solar technology, making the new generation of solar energy companies in the United States forced to start mass production as soon as possible, and began to consider cutting costs and adjusting strategies in advance to seek a place in the market. .
Even so, compared with China's large polysilicon solar companies such as Wuxi Suntech and Tianwei Yingli, which have generally achieved 1-2G watt capacity and global expansion, Solyndra expects to reach 300 MW capacity by the end of 2011 and is too expensive. The price still looks pale and weak. It is the changes in the global competitive environment of these solar energy that have led to the gradual reduction of venture capital in the United States and even the exit of solar energy production projects that require more capital in the United States.
For the US solar industry, is it the loss of risk capital? Obviously not. Although the capital production project of Big Capital may not be able to get huge support from VCs, it is more funded by the government and industry. However, solar technology and equipment R&D companies with small capital requirements will still be the darling of VCs. Those thin-film solar companies, while continuing technological innovation, improving photoelectric conversion rate, and developing production equipment, should also be able to cooperate with Chinese companies in the future, realize technology transfer, transfer production bases, and find a way to survive in globalization today. In fact, many domestic solar energy companies, such as Zhejiang Zhengtai and Baoding Tianwei, have begun to develop thin-film solar cells. Last year, the Chinese government signed an agreement with First Solar, the world's largest producer of thin-film solar cells, to build a 2000-megawatt amorphous silicon solar power plant and build a thin-film photovoltaic module production plant in Inner Mongolia. The prospect of thin film solar cells is still worth looking forward to.