CASS report: China's economic structure is seriously unbalanced

■ Focus “The fresh graduates and migrant workers are most vulnerable to economic fluctuations .” The China Academy of Social Sciences released the “China Macroeconomic Operation Report 2012”, which pointed out that the employment of college students and migrant workers is most vulnerable to economic fluctuations. According to the monitoring data, the Academy of Social Sciences found that due to training costs and labor contract restrictions, the opportunity cost of dismissing young people is lower than that of dismissing older workers. At the same time, enterprises tend to reduce the recruitment of new employees when the economy is in recession. The youth unemployment rate of college graduates has risen further during the economic downturn and has become one of the most vulnerable to economic fluctuations. Most of the migrant workers are employed in small and medium-sized enterprises, especially labor-intensive manufacturing and construction enterprises. Coupled with their poor skills and lack of labor contract protection, they are also the most vulnerable to the crisis. Nisshin Securities recently released a report saying that in the coming period, China’s employment problem will shift from total to structural. At present, the labor market is showing a trend of “tightening at both ends and loosening in the middle”. The low-end labor market tends to be tense, and the large-scale migrant workers’ unemployment caused by the economic downturn may not appear again. On the other hand, during the industrial upgrading process. The demand for technical and research talents with professional skills has increased, and the junior colleges and university graduates cultivated by the current higher education are in an awkward position. ■ Voice The labor structure is profoundly changing. Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist of the Bank of China , said yesterday that although the economic growth rate has declined this year, it has not caused employment difficulties. This may indicate that China's labor supply structure is undergoing profound changes. According to the results of the sixth census, it is expected that China's labor demand and supply will basically reach equilibrium in the next year. As the real estate industry is closely related to employment, real estate prices in different cities will likely differentiate in the future. There are many employment opportunities in large and medium-sized cities, and the labor force is gathering, so there is still upward pressure on house prices; small cities are just the opposite.

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